The betting line discussion after the June 3 Primary is now calculating the vig on whether California and Contra Costa Democrats or Republicans can score a Two-fer in November’s upcoming election. Can Democrats protect rookie Congressman Jerry McNerney (CD-11) from a take-back assault from Republican Dean Andal and take the last Bay Area Republican Assembly seat away as Abram Wilson faces Democrat Joan Buchanan for termed-out Guy Houston’s Assembly seat?
Chuck Carpenter, just reelected Central Committee member (D-4) of the county Democratic juggernaut named Big Blue, said it another way when he posted recently on another blog, “While the CCRP tries to find a healer the DPCCC will move forward registering reborn Republicans as Democrats,working for Joan to TAKE the 15th. Thank you for picking the San Ramon Mayor Reps. It will take many Republican Dollars to turn him into a candidate. Dollars which will not be in CD10. Remember Jerry is an INCUMBENT and we will be walking phoning and helping him stay in office. After Contra Costa is all Blue there will be time for debates, but not before November.”
Begs some question, don’t it?
– Will Democrats sweep on Obama’s coat tails in November?
– Can Andal win back Pombo’s seat?
– Can Buchanan give Bay Area Republicans the check shot they so badly need?
– Could Republicans win both CD-11 and AD-15?
If one assumes like me that Republicans cannot keep the Assembly seat and win back CD-11, the question then becomes, which is more important to win? The Assembly or Congressional seat?
Political strategists talk about the first reelection campaign for U.S. Congress or Senate as the most critical. For instance, once a Senator wins that second term they can be there for life if they choose. Less sure for Congress, just ask Bill Baker; which illustrates the trend. So, in theory, at least, this is the time for Republicans to take down McNerney before he catches on like a bad cold that won’t go away.
Yet, Democrats freely admit their plans to wipe out Republican representation in the California Legislature. Such an outcome would create a 2/3 majority with which to raise veto-proof taxes. At first blush this seems like the clearer, closer to home, reason for the State Republican Party to pull the trigger on behalf of Abram Wilson. Let the National Party and special interests fend for Andal if they want. We’ve got our own firefight right here at home.