In life it is enevitable. We all make enemies. And if you could pick your enemies in a political campaign then I say Joan Buchanan is pretty lucky.
Yes, Buchanan ran a misguided Congressional campaign by listening to the dark voices of special interests and she turned her back on her contributors and the Democratic Party who helped her win the 15th Assembly District seat. But as they say in New York FORGETABOUTIT Vinnie! She is a politician. What do you expect but a little biting of the hand?
As a matter of fact, I think Joan Buchanan and Robert Rao get the award for politicians who wasted the most campaign boodle in a primary. I will be happy to host a dinner with both of them. And they can argue about which campaign consultant padded their kids inheritence the most with their money.
If the Republican party had any brains they would not have lost the seat in the first place. But saying Republicans and brains is an oxymoron these days. Republicans delude themselves saying it was the Obama surge that carried Buchanan to victory over Wilson in 2008. Dream on. Republican registration in this district has been in decline for years and, as of May 2009, Democrats enjoy at 4-percent advantage in AD-15.
Please remember this is the assembly district that used to be a rock-ribbed conservative bastion where four of the last five victors were Republicans, and three of them were conservatives. Who is to say that as 2010 rolls around the registration trend continues and the Democratic edge stretches out to seven or eight percent. Demographics is the future as older Republicans retire and flee the high costs of the Bay Area and California to be replaced by Gen-Y Democrats and their youthful, communitarian spirit.
Of course Buchanan could benefit from her choice of opponents. San Ramon Mayor Abram Wilson, whom the chattering classes spin as having laser-like focus on the upcoming AD-15 race, isn’t quitting his day job any time soon as he gears up for another run as Mayor. Laser-like focus? Who’s to say a Joe Rubay or Gordon Blake will challenge Wilson in the primary; it might even help Wilson focus.
The question is are County Democrats ready to throw Buchanan to the Republican wolves and give up a hard earned prize in AD-15. Or, might they set up a progressive proletarian in Anthony Woods to challenge the wealthy and elite Buchanan in the 2010 Democratic primary?
One thing is for sure, no matter how outraged the California Democratic Party in Sacramento is toward Buchanan they will get over it in time to pour cash into her reelection campaign. If she is weakened either by a primary opponent (unlikely) and is underfunded (also unlikely) the Republican could win. But they will have to be smart about it.
But there’s that oxymoron thing. Considering how bankrupt the State and Local Republican leadership is that will be a daunting task.